It's back baby!
Over the next 3 days, i'll be releasing three posts on my season preview for the upcoming 2024 NRL Season, looking at factors and observations from a punting perspective. I will also release my favourite futures play/bet in part 3 - so stay tuned!
Will also reveal my ladder at the end!
I will be going in order of last year's regular season ladder.
Wests Tigers
2023 Position: 17th
Premiership Odds: $101
Regular Season Wins: 7.5 O/U
After consecutive wooden spoons, the only way the Tigers can improve is up. Isn’t it? The summer headlines have been dominated by the clear-out of club powerbrokers which have many firmly believing the embattled club are in a better head space and can start to rebuild without the baggage of their previous management.
They will no doubt use this season to continue to blood some of their younger players and combinations ahead of Jerome Luai’s arrival in 2025. To me however, the squad still lacks any real strike and they are likely going to introduce a new halves pairing with Sezer and Sullivan – each with some of their own question marks. I haven't been a fan of their recruitment and it will be a challenge to see how Benji Marshall can mature as a coach and get his players to buy in.
There is enough experience in that side though, led by premiership winner Api Korisau to suggest that they can be somewhat competitive. They’ll avoid a third-straight spoon.
2024 Prediction: 16th
St George Dragons
2023 Position: 16th
Premiership Odds: $101
Regular Season Wins: 7.5 O/U
Last year’s tip still pains me, after being ahead of the curve on the decline of the red V and narrowly missing out on the Dragons wooden spoon bet at $8. This year however, there are no surprises and the market are expecting them to be bad. They are an equal favourite, if not shorter in some spots than the Tigers to win the dreaded award.
There is no denying the work ahead of Shane Flanagan, who resumes as a head coach 4 years removed from his previous position with cross town rival Cronulla. The Dragons were another club who were very underwhelming in the player market, with Kyle Flanagan their most notable signing. I’m not sure how much upside there will be compared to what Amone was producing in 2023.
Their forward pack to me presents the most obvious and glaring weakness, with a lack of depth and general ability. The average age of their pack is also 28.8 years, so I worry about their ability to sustain long minutes. What is in their favour however is a relatively favourable schedule and the opening 2 months will be telling for how their season will unfold, with 5 out of their first 6 all against bottom eight sides from 2023. Should they find themselves winless in this period, do we see the rumours circulate again about Ben Hunt and would the Dragons pull the ripcord on the season and allow themselves a full re-build?
They are clearly the worst roster in the league.
2024 Prediction: 17th
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
2023 Position: 15th
Premiership Odds: $41
Regular Season Wins: 9.5 O/U
The Bulldogs have been tipped as everyone’s "notable improver' the past 2 seasons and they have gravely disappointed. Once again the Gus Gould experiment is in full swing, this time with new recruits Blake Taafe, Bronson Xerri, Josh Curran and star Panther Stephen Crichton headlining a bunch of new signings – 11 to be exact!
The key to Canterbury will be how quickly they can integrate the new recruits and hit the ground running. I tend to sit in the camp of the Doggies starting slower than their fans would like and getting better as the year rolls on. I’m also not sold on the halves pairing of Burton and Sexton. We saw it in the second half of last season, and I’ll reserve judgement for now and give them the benefit of the doubt of having a full pre-season together to work things out.
For a team who had 7 wins last year, they are now asked to improve by 30% to get to 10 and I am not sure that they do.
2024 Prediction: 13th
Gold Coast Titans
2023 Position: 14th
Premiership Odds: $41
Regular Season Wins: 10.5 O/U
The biggest move for them this off-season has come away from the playing field, with Des Hasler their new head coach. Des will bring a cutting edge and winning mentality that they haven’t had previously. I think that can only be a good thing for a playing group that has shown plenty of raw talent but also prone to inconsistency.
The strength of the side is their forward pack. Beau Fermor returns as a forgotten man after his ACL last year and ex-Bronco Palasia will likely slot straight into the starting prop role alongside Fotuaika. The balance of their team looks good with my two question marks surrounding their halves (especially with Foran another year older) and shift of AJ Brimson to centres.
They will have to ride out the opening month with Jayden Campbell and Fifita and I think they’re going to be in the finals mix, but ultimately fall short.
2024 Prediction: 10th
Dolphins
2023 Position: 13th
Premiership Odds: $41
Regular Season Wins: 10.5 O/U
The biggest challenge for the Dolphins will be to see if they can replicate the magic from their break-out inaugural season. It is a completely different challenge playing as an underdog compared to now having some pressure and expectation placed upon you.
Yes they have improved their roster year on year with Averillo and ex-Broncos Flegler and Farnworth joining the cross-town franchise, but their forward pack leaders are another year older and there are doubts that Gilbert has suffered an ACL injury, which would be cruel for him after having a breakout season in 2023.
Their biggest concern is their halves pairing of Katoa and Sullivan and like last year, I think it holds true in the close games and will hold them back from taking that next step. I would call for some regression for a side who had a win total last year of 4.5
2024 Prediction: 14th
Manly Sea Eagles
2023 Position: 12th
Premiership Odds: $26
Regular Season Wins: 12.5 O/U
Manly are an interesting club and are tipped for positive improvement by the market. Their most notable incoming signing is Luke Brooks from the Tigers, who could blossom in a new environment and a powerful leader in Cherry-Evans as his halves partner.
It is a big year for some of their emerging stars in Tolu Koula and Olakau’atu and of course let’s not forget the return of their star fullback Tom Trbojevic. Their success unfortunately, like any other year, is too dependent on the health of Turbo. Even if he manages to stay on the field for all of 2024, how dynamic and sharp will he be given the sustained toll of consecutive injuries on his body and the form he showed in the first half of last season.
The lack of depth and ageing leadership group are two other negatives that many don’t seem to be talking about. The NRL is a war of attrition and I worry about the toll of a full season and what impact that could have. There is quite a degree of variance and a lot has to go right for them to beat this win total.
2024 Prediction: 12th
North Queensland Cowboys
2023 Position: 11th
Premiership Odds: $19
Regular Season Wins: 12.5 O/U
The Cowboys are looking for a bounce-back season after a disappointing 2023. They have all of the ingredients to be successful - a strong home field advantage, solid core and State of Origin experience. With a lot of teams improving around them, the Cowboys have really failed to capitalise on improving their own squad and that could be telling when all is said and done.
A lot of their key players in Drinkwater, Dearden and Robson are coming off career-best years and they still fell short of finals. That is my one hesitation with backing the Cowboys and the likelihood of repeating that same effort. Furthermore, Townsend is declining and both McLean and Taumalolo on the wrong side of 30 and starting to slow down.
I think their price is fair and they’ll be there or thereabouts in the battle for the bottom half of the top 8.
2024 Prediction: 9th
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Stay tuned for Part 2 - with teams 10th to 6th from last year's ladder
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