This article previews teams 10th through 7th from last season,
Parramatta Eels
2023 Position: 10th
Premiership Odds: $23
Regular Season Wins: 11.5 O/U
After finding themselves as grand final runners up in 2022, the Eels failed to make the finals last season. The Blue & Golds were stung by injuries and off-field incidents and that contributed to a disappointing season. Whilst their Premiership window isn’t as bright as it was a few seasons ago, they still have a solid foundation that their team is built upon. I think the combination of Brown and Moses will flourish further this year and there really are no more excuses for these two, who should be set for peak years.
The question mark for me is in the outside backs and we saw last season that they can lack strike out wide and that point of difference game-changer. Their strength has been their power game and there are a few excuses for why they weren’t as good last year. With representative prop forwards Campbell-Gillard and Junior Paulo both entering their 30’s, I like the addition of Tuialgi from Manly to help ease the burden and produce quality minutes up front. Hopgood was a revelation in 2023 and if their backrow of Lane, Matterson and Cartwright can stay healthy then the Eels could prove to be a frisky side.
2024 Prediction: 6th
South Sydney Rabbitohs
2023 Position: 9th
Premiership Odds: $9.50
Regular Season Wins: 13.5 O/U
Are South Sydney poised to make another leap in 2024 and become a heavyweight contender? The market believes in them to do just that with the cardinal and myrtle installed as the 4th favourite in premiership betting. I mean, after all, this side were sitting 1st just a third into the season last year only to fall off a cliff; winning 3 of their past 14 games! That is just incredible. Whilst I don’t think that we see the same decline, I for one am not as optimistic in their fortunes.
Yes South Sydney have the star-studded names, but the games are not played on paper. The same reservations I had for the Rabbitohs last year are only magnified. Their core that have been such an integral part of their run during the 2018-2022 are another year older and I can’t be sure that we will see the best of Cody Walker and Damien Cook across the course of an entire season.
Will the constant war that is Rugby League finally start to take a toll on their forward pack? Tom Burgess is turning 32 and in his final season before returning to England and both Tatola and Jai Arrow had near perfect full seasons before missing 12 and 13 games respectively due to varying injuries in 2023. The health status of their pack would be a concern to me, because I don’t trust the depth South Sydney have in 2024. Sure, Latrell Mitchell, Campbell Graham and Cam Murray are some of the best in their respective positions and they can carry this side through games and be the point of difference when the chips are down.
Sorry Rabbits supporters, I have your team just missing out on finals, as they did last season.
2024 Prediction: 9th
Canberra Raiders
2023 Position: 8th
Premiership Odds: $51
Regular Season Wins: 7.5 O/U
Poor Ricky. His side are being devalued this season, with his side the longest price to win a premiership since his first year in charge. Looking at last season it is hard to argue with it, given they had the worst point differential (-137) of any top 8 side since 2005 and went 9-15 ATS.
There does appear to be a breath of fresh air in the Nation’s capital though with the furore around Jack Wighton now behind them. The signing of Kayo Weekes from Manly is astute and they have the potential to unlock a different offense to what we’ve seen in prior years. Their young guns of Weekes, Xavier Savage, Timoko and Chevy Stewart (who we should see at some stage during the 2024 season) all have an x-factor about them and the question will be to see how quickly they can develop, limit errors and put in consistent performances along the way.
The forward pack is still solid and can lay a consistent platform each week with Papali’i, Tapine and Horsburgh. I also don’t mind the signing of Morgan Smithies although adapting to the NRL quickly will be no easy task.
The schedule is favourable this year and gut feel Canberra might surprise a few people and look like a top 8 side at some stage. Ultimately, I think halves play and lack of depth will cruel them at some stage. Because their start to the year looks very tough on paper, I’d wait for the first 5 rounds before looking to play a top 8 futures bet or any longer shot. It will take them time to gel and get their combinations right and they will be depleted early without Horsburgh and Kris out through suspension for the first month or so.
2024 Prediction: 15th
Sydney Roosters
2023 Position: 7th
Premiership Odds: $9
Regular Season Wins: 13.5 O/U
I’ll touch on the recruitment first and foremost, because like most seasons, the Roosters seem to add class to an already stacked roster. They didn’t get the signings right in 2023, but this year it looks far more suited to the holes that were in their side. Newcastle flyer Dom Young emerged as one of the premium wingers in the entire competition and he has similar attributes to slot into the role that Daniel Tupou crafted for many good years under Robinson. Given the decline of all-world leader Warea-Hargreaves, adding Spencer Leniu to the engine room is a crucial piece of the puzzle and can provide go-forward and aggression to team that looked like it needed it through large stretches last year,
For me there are still question marks over Brandon Smith’s ability to be a dominant starting dummy half and Luke Keary I said last year but his best performances are behind him and he’s probably one more concussion away from retirement.
The Roosters will be very good, because their talent will take them far. But a lot of these players were part of their grand final success in 2018 and 2019. The last two seasons we’ve seen more player movement than ever before and I think the Roosters know themselves they will probably go through a few up and down seasons before we see them enter a Premiership window again and be a true contender. It feels like that period will come when the team can be built around halfback Sam Walker.
2024 Prediction: 6th
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FREE BEST BET
Was going to wait until part 3 to post this, however since we've previewed the Eels, thought it be appropriate to give out the best bet now.
PARRA EELS TOTAL WINS - OVER 11.5 ($1.82 Sportsbet)
The Eels are a side I believe are primed for improvement and believe they'll make the top 8.
They have one of the better spines in the competition and there was disruption last season after expecting Hodgson to be their dummy half and having him suffer career ending surgery. Between Hands and Lussick with a full pre-season under their belts, they will look more in sync with their halves. Let's not forget Dylan Brown missed 7 games last year via suspension, Shaun Lane and Matterson missed a third of the season and Sivo missed the first 6 rounds of the competition.
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Stay tuned for part 3 tomorrow, where we review 2023's top 6.
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