The final installment of this series, where we preview of the top 6 teams from the 2023 campaign.
Cronulla Sharks
2023 Position: 6th
Premiership Odds: $23
Regular Season Wins: 12.5 O/U
The Sharks enter 2024 as one of the most settled teams in the competition and we are now entering year 3 of the Fitzgibbon coaching era, so I think we see them really dialled in and ready to make a surge. Yet again the Sharkies are blessed with a quite soft schedule having the most amount of games to be played against last year’s bottom 9. Fascinatingly, Cronulla also get a 7+ day turnaround on 18 out of their 24 matches.
From a personnel perspective, they lose fringe first-grade talent in Connor Tracey and Wade Graham to retirement. The only other big summer move (which was pre-empted towards the back-end of 2023) was the swap in the halves with Trindall taking Moylan’s place as the starter. Of course the success of this team starts and stops with their 2022 Dally M medallist, Nicho Hynes. On the back of the fallout from Origin 1 last season, he never returned as the same player and it is easy to see that his confidence was down and flat. With an off-season under his belt and a refreshed outlook, we will see a much better Hynes in 2024.
A lot of their core squad are also entering what appears to be a peak window (the likes of Nikora, Kennedy and Brailey) and what I like about Cronulla is their tough and gritty DNA, which makes them alive in almost every game. The outside backs and spine are solid without being spectacular and I think Hamlin-Uele and Rudolf are an underrated front row partnership. The knock on the Sharks is that they seem to lack true x-factor and that has shown up time and time again against the better sides in the NRL. I also can’t help but feel they are missing a genuine option at lock, as Finucane’s best days are well behind him and he doesn’t fit the profile of the modern day #13.
Overall, the fact that they have been labelled as 'flat track bullies' and haven’t shown an ability to beat the best teams has played into their market price. They are priced as a fringe finals side but I feel they are closer to the top 4. Ultimately these shortcomings will likely show up come finals time yet again.
2024 Prediction: 3rd
Newcastle Knights
2023 Position: 5th
Premiership Odds: $23
Regular Season Wins: 11.5 O/U
I was one of the early proponents who predicted good fortunes for the Knights in 2023, which culminated in a 9 game win streak to close the season and saw them finish in 5th position. The expectation will be high amongst their fanbase to replicate and kick on even further, however I am not sure we see the same output and I would expect a little regression.
For me, there are still limitations on their halves with Gamble and Hastings and I can’t get excited about their backrow with Frizell, Jed Cartwright and Adam Elliot. That doesn’t’ scream finals bound in my books. Of course the backline is what provides their points and x-factor and reigning Dally M medallist Kalyn Ponga can carry this side; but he has had injury troubles in almost every season since moving to Newcastle. His last five season appearances are 20, 14, 15, 19 and 20. Are we so sure that he maintains a full bill of health and that the Knights can reproduce that same spark without their star fullback and playmaker? They will be one of the teams that are fighting for spots 7 through 13. Everyone likes to favour what they saw last and the Knights blew everyone away toward the end of 2023. As a result, the bookies are making you pay a tax on them now. It’s a pass at the price, but expecting the Knights to be fighting for that final one or two spots in the eight.
2024 Prediction: 8th
New Zealand Warriors
2023 Position: 4th
Premiership Odds: $19
Regular Season Wins: 12.5 O/U
What a year it was for New Zealand, who went from near-last in 2022 to being catapulted straight into the top 4 within the space of 12 months. The Warriors can harness enough spirit from returning son Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Fonua-Blake’s final season in Auckland and they’ve added nice depth with Harris-Tevita (halves cover) and Kurt Capewell into the backrow. The Warriors side has improved year on year but despite this, I believe Andrew Webster will find out that the second season is always hardest. There are no secrets, teams can game plan knowing what to expect and the Warriors lose a bit of the shine from being that ‘surprise’ element.
From that perspective I see them dropping out of the top 4 given the quality of teams and talent around them this year. They will still be highly competitive though and the home crowd will be a factor that lifts them in a lot of tight matches. The other element that aids them is that they typically flourish during the Origin period when other Australian based teams lose top-tier talent and rest some key starters. That should help them navigate enough wins to make a claim for spots higher up the ladder.
Ultimately though, I think the level that Shaun Johnson showed in 2023 won’t be replicated and expect some regression from him. Can Metcalf step up and become a key playmaker? If he can the Warriors can make 2024 memorable also.
2024 Prediction: 5th
Melbourne Storm
2023 Position: 3rd
Premiership Odds: $10
Regular Season Wins: 13.5 O/U
The gap between the Storm and the two best sides in the NRL in Penrith and Brisbane were very evident in last year’s final series, with Melbourne losing both by heavy margins. Munster and Hughes weren’t at their best and it is fair to suggest that Harry Grant was also disappointing post-Origin. Those three are their leaders and as a collective, it is arguable that the Storm spine is the very best in the NRL. But where they were really shown up in those two matches was through the engine room. Losing Christian Welch only weakens them further and their back-row and middle forward rotation would have to improve significantly to match some of the better sides. To my eye, this is also the weakest squad depth and inexperience that Bellamy has had during his tenure.
Let’s not take away from the genius that is Craig Bellamy though and he could unlock some magic in his final season before retirement. But across the course of a full season I think that the Storm level out with where their roster is at. Aside from Papenhuyzen (who isn’t even guaranteed a return to the lighting form of 2021), I can’t say they are due for any improvement. It has been 12 seasons in a row that we’ve seen the familiar purple colours shine in the finals series, but this could be the year when that comes to an end. I think they’ll sneak in, but there is a changing of the guard south of the border.
2024 Prediction: 7th
Brisbane Broncos
2023 Position: 2nd
Premiership Odds: $4.50
Regular Season Wins: 16.5 O/U
The Broncos enjoyed an absolute magic season, finishing joint top of the ladder and finding themselves 2 minutes away from Premiership glory. Kevvie and his men have a big task ahead of them to replicate that same success and they will no doubt have to navigate a different pressure with weight of expectation. I don’t feel that there will be any complacency in that locker room and I think Grand Final heart-ache in that manner, for a side so young, doesn’t affect them as much as a side who are nearing the end of a premiership cycle. For Brisbane, it feels as though they are just entering one, with 2023 coming a year or two ahead of where they thought they would be.
A lot of people have been quick to judge the Broncos 2023 schedule as soft, but let’s not forget that heading into the year they had the most “difficult” draw accordingly to nearly every media platform. 14 of the Broncos’ 24 games came against top 8 sides from the year previous and they faced Melbourne, Parramatta, Souths, Roosters, Cowboys and Penrith twice each. The dominant force they became as the season developed masked some of this early perception. The reason I’m bring it up, is because I feel some of the personnel losses can be offset by their draw for 2024, which looks slightly more favourable. 7 of their first 12 matches are played at Suncorp and like the Sharks, they get a 7+ day turnaround on 18 occasions. Furthermore, in the post-Origin period with the lead-up to finals, the Broncos get the intrinsic benefit of only leaving Queensland once in the final 9 weeks.
Let’s talk about the negatives and that is dealing with the loss of Farnworth, Flegler, Capewell and Palasia. In the short term, it will be a tougher assignment to navigate and we might see some growing pains, but the ceiling with Cobbo in centres and Piakura on an edge are significantly greater and I do believe they will grow into the roles as the season develops. In terms of depth, the Broncos rotation looks as good as it did last year and despite the middle forward losses, experienced prop signings Marty Taupau and now Fletcher Baker, might both miss out on being named in the top 17 run-on side.
Ezra Mam had a break-out performance in the grand final, but I can’t really say his season was superb. He played as the perfect foil for Adam Reynolds but he can elevate his game to a new level this season and it would not be surpsring to see him linked with a Maroons jersey at some stage. The core of this side are amongst a handful of the best players in their respective positions and there appears to be a sense of arrogance and pride back in the club which is reminiscent of the 1990s sides. Anything other than a top 4 finish would be viewed as a disappointment.
2024 Prediction: 2nd
Penrith Panthers
2023 Position: 1st
Premiership Odds: $4.00
Regular Season Wins: 17.5 O/U
Penrith Panthers and their modern day dynasty is so unprecedented that the default position from the average Joe is to bet away from them and to go and seek out something new and unseen. We saw this happen as recent as last year even, where both the Roosters and Rabbits were shorter in Premiership betting before the season kicked off. So with that in mind, I think that this has kept the Panthers sitting at a fair/reasonable price in the market. For this season anyway, with Luai still in five-eight partnering Cleary, they will yet again have one of the premium spines in the competition, Taylan May (2022 rookie of the year) is essentially like a new signing after sitting out all of last season and can help mitigate the loss of star centre Chricton and they have one of the elite backrow combinations with Martin, Sorensen and Yeo.
Looking at the win totals, you can see how the market is viewing Penrith and Brisbane against the rest of the league. With the next group of clubs sitting at 13.5 wins. I agree with this market consensus and for me, alongside Brisbane, these are the two best teams in the league and all things considered, I believe it plays out that way on the ladder. I know it is boring and unimaginative, but Ivan Cleary is going to possibly clinch another minor premiership.
2024 Prediction: 1st
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MY FINAL LADDER PREDICTION FOR 2024
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