Magic round is always a special round with the eyes of the Rugby League world firmly fixed on Brisbane! The fanfare and passion around the city usually translates to the stadium and there should be no shortage of motivation and energy from the players on the field. It is a round where I don't feel there is a tonne of value from a betting perspective and it is a tricky week to handicap.
We've won 2 straight on our best bet and looking for more momentum with the 3rd... (hopefully!)
FREE Bet of the Round
2024 Record 6-4 (60%)
TIGERS First Half +6 ($1.85 Topsport)
Next Best: Tigers +5.5 @ $2 on b365
Tigers are this week's ugly ducking and despite losing 6 straight, feel they can make a game of this and surprise a few.
When these sides met back in week 5, Fins were full strength and the line closed 5.5. I don't agree with such an adjustment between then and now and the bookies have overvalued the form of the Fins, who despite their ladder position, are not a top 6 side.
I question how much of an upgrade Hammer is over Fuller, with the latter arguably one of their most impressive in the past month. I also can see the Tigers utilising their forward pack to stay in the fight and can match the grind with Bennett's men. I'm taking the first half because I feel a side so young and fragile needs to start well and I like the edge of taking out goal kicking from the equation (with Isaako superior in that department). We could also see some rustiness from Hammer and having the lowest error and penalty rate in the NRL, the Fins have proven to be a disciplined side who are patient. That could play to our advantage when the Tigers are written off and could rattle their cage with no weight of expectation and forcing the Dolphins to get uncomfortable.
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