There is a feeling of normality this week with the NRL returning for its weekend opening round fixtures. The Vegas experiment was a roaring success and no doubt the teams who sat and watched will be chomping at the bit to get their season underway and that should lead to an exciting set of matchups.
Round 1 is always interesting to access and identify value, with many unknowns and market perception of teams reliant on past results and performances.
FREE Best Bet of the Round (Record: 0-0)
DRAGONS TEAM TOTAL U18.5 ($1.80 Pointsbet)
*Next Best: U18 flat - $1.75 Topsport
I believe the Titans have the superior lineup and don’t think the market is accurately rating just how bad the Dragons are 1-17. Given the looming inclement weather and the fact that the Titans are missing some firepower in Campbell and Fifita, that’s enough just to throw me off laying a converted try. Would prefer to target the Dragons team total as I think that they will struggle to consistently build good-ball pressure behind one of the weakest packs I’ve seen in the NRL over the past few seasons. Under a new era in Shane Flanagan, his coaching style is focused on attitude, work rate and doing the 1%’s and I think the focus of the Dragons will be to try to control the game, slow it down and be disciplined.
Newcastle Knights v Canberra Raiders
Thursday 8pm, McDonald Jones Stadium
Line: -7.5; Total: 41.5
Let’s rewind to their last match, which was last season’s 5th vs 8th elimination final; where the Knights produced a stirring comeback to end Canberra’s season. The Knights were riding a 9 game win streak and the team and city were full of momentum and energy. The opposite could’ve been said about Canberra, whom entered the match only winning 3 from their past 4, had lost Seb Kris and Corey Horsburgh to suspension and were missing Josh Papali’I. The former two players will also be out for this clash too.
The line was reflective of all these conditions and closed at -10.5.
Fast forward a few months, and with a new season upon us, 2023 counts for very little and we are sitting at a spread of -7.5. The Knights roster is no doubt weakened from the one we saw last. Try scoring extraordinaire Dom Young is now a Rooster, Lachie Fitzgibbon who was a big part of that left hand edge success is in the UK and all-round utility Kurt Mann has been replaced by half Jack Cogger.
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