NRL Round 2 Betting Preview - PLUS FREE BEST BET INCLUDED
Opening round is done and dusted and we return to a normal week of NRL programming. One word of advice or caution is not to necessarily excpect to see the same results and perofrmances as we did in week 1. Remember, it is only an 80-minute sample size. Teams who played poorly will look good and teams who looked good will play poorly.
FREE Best Bet of the Round
2024 Record: 0-1
Warriors +7.5 ($1.90 Sportsbet)
*Next Best: +6.5 consensus line above $1.90
With NSA and Munster out, I rate the Storm side and this version of New Zealand evenly and they match up well against each other on paper. The class of the Storm playmakers could very well be enough to make the difference in this one, but asking them to cover over a converted try is too big. Both teams endured tough, physical battles in week 1 and those results could have easily been reversed, I think the recency bias has played into this line because had the W-L column been the other way around, the spread might've opened at 3.5 instead.
The Storm put a lot of effort into getting some revenge over Penrith last week and I don't believe we see the same level of intensity and effort. Early rounds can throw up some contrasting results and despite the unbeaten record of Bellamy in round 1, surprisingly, the Storm have lost in round 2 in 3 of the past 4 years (with all occurring as a favourite).
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Game Previews
Brisbane Broncos v South Sydney Rabbitohs
Thursday 8pm, Suncorp Stadium
Line: -8.5; Total: 41.5
Both of these sides are coming off round 1 losses and this is the first match with the returning Vegas clubs playing each other in the alternate fixture. We will get a guide as to how they’ve backed up and I’d be on the lookout for any little edges that can be applied to Manly v Roosters later in the weekend. For example, greater fatigue than normal late in the match would lend itself to a second half total or highest scoring half market. Or early errors and a lack of physicality could form a recipe for lower scoring game.
My take on Brisbane’s performance is that it was full of merit and let’s not forget that with a little more composure they would’ve taken the lead with 15 to go. They did have a few excuses, notably the fact that it is tough to lose your starting edge backrower so early in the game (HIA) and the shift of Carrigan clearly didn’t work. I believe that will be last time we see Walters implement that as his plan B – losing Patty through the centre as that one-two punch with Haas negates a lot of their physicality, ball playing and defensive presence that was so prominent in 2023. Piakura will be fit to go here given the additional week rest and Brisbane’s line-up looks strong. We should also see the speed and power of their outside backs on a normal size field. In hindsight, the slightly condensed field did favour the more power runners of the Roosters and there was less space for the Broncos backline to work with and create overloads. Adam Reynolds needs to have a much better game than he did in Round 1 and to be polite, his general play kicking can only go one way (upwards) after what we saw at Allegiant Stadium.
For the Bunnies, given the construction of their starting side, I do agree with the strong market sentiment in Brisbane’s favour. We have Jai Arrow ruled out (potentially for the season), stripping the Bunnies depth and rotation and starting centres Jack Wighton and Campbell Graham are also absent. There will be a significant advantage for Staggs and Cobbo and they will have a much easier time than what they faced against Joey Manu and Suaalii, who would say got the better of both matchups last week. With the home field edge, the line is justified and prior to Vegas, you could get this at -5.5. I don’t like jumping in and betting the spread after such a significant move. What is also keeping me off is the fact that Brisbane are potentially looking up to round 3 and what is a Grand Final rematch against Penrith. Off course at 0-1 you can’t be complacent, and I think Brisbane start strong and keep the pressure on Demetriou.
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