The Origin period presents an unknown period for both punters and bookies alike! There are definitely opportunities to exploit market inefficiencies and the key is to keep your ear to the ground. Looking to bounce back on the best bet too!
FREE Best Bet of the Round
Record: 6-1-5 (55%)
Bulldogs TT U19.5 ($1.88 Pointsbet)
*Next Best: Under 18.5 alt line SB @ 1.83
In what is shaping to be an important match with potential top 8 implications, the Knights are getting all the favours here with the Bulldogs missing their 3 best players in Kikau, Burton and Crichton. Stemming from this, from a numbers perspective, I have this Knights team rated 3 points better and factoring in the bye and home crowd, this line is definitely pushing 5.5/6 in my view.
Despite being without Ponga, they’ve found an identity and winning playing style without their talisman which is centred around high work rate, discipline and aggressive forward play. It's also a coincidence that their last defeat was against the Dogs and there will be some revenge back in front of their crowd. The Knights can dictate their game against a team who has shown a lack of creativity and strike when their best players are out. Not sure I trust the combination of Sexton and Hutchinson against sharp line speed as they aren't playmakers that can keep a defense in two minds. I can't see the Dogs scoring 4 tries, which is what they need to clear this line. There is a risk of some complacency after a decent winning period, but with two upcoming matches against the Storm and Panthers, the Knights can't afford to drop this one as they'll realistically be looking at losing 3 on the bounce.
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