FREE Bet of the Round
Record: 7-1-6 (55%)
RAIDERS -1.5 ($1.85 TAB)
Next best: -1.5 @ $1.82 Sportsbet
I'm taking the fresh team here in Canberra who are short home favourites on Friday night. Despite both teams sitting on 7 wins apiece, there is a real contrast in form and the Raiders feel to me like a more together and resilient outfit. The Cowboys have been up and down for much of the year and last week's loss to the Warriors was another concerning defeat and I think they're a side that are looking for the bye. On a short turnaround with travel, coming up against a Canberra team who will look to test them physically and not give up anything easy, it does look like a tough match-up for North Queensland. Another factor is the weather, with the Cowboys going to experience temps at kick-off less than 10 degrees at this time of the year. I know the Cows have performed pretty well in recent trips to the Nation's Capital, but it is a real factor to take note of and they haven't got a dominant side like they did in the mid 2010s with Thurston at the helm. The last two matches played here, the Raiders suffered a 40-0 and 44-16 defeat respectively so there will be an emphasis on starting well and putting in a good performance for their home faithful and they'll have the energy to outlast North Queensland.
From a simple handicap perspective, I have the Raiders power rated equally to this Cowboys side. Factoring in rest, home field and form, I think this spread should be closer to -3.5 and happy to lay the short line below a secondary key number.
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