With the first month of the season in the rear view mirror, this is the chance to take stock and re-assess how I view each team. This will hopefully set the tone for continued success. Brisbane saluted for us as a home underdog and we roll onto another week.
FREE Bet of the Round
Record: 3-1 (75%)
PANTHERS FH Total U10.5 ($1.80 Bet365 and Sportsbet)
Whilst Manly certainly aren’t the top 4 team that many were calling for after the first two weeks of the season, they aren’t as bad as the team we saw last week against the Dragons either. I have them somewhere in the middle, power rated 7th right now. At Brookie, my number on this game has it closer to pick’em.
I like the fact that Manly’s line-up is settled and remains unchanged. They are coming up against the 3-peat premiers who looked dominant without their leader Nathan Cleary and will surely be a public side and a leg in most multis. Considering the conditions in Sydney this weekend are predicted to be wet and miserable, my best angle to play Manly would be a Penrith team total iteration.
I favour the first half as I like to back the home dog to come out with energy and enthusiasm. Given it is also DCE’s club record breaking 310th appearance, I don’t see any shortage in that department. As good as fill-in halfback Schnieder looked, the injured player bounce will wear off and coming to Brookvale is a more intimidating task than playing at Allianz. I also expect Manly to value possession and be more disciplined with the ball early (considering the amount of errors they made last week).
Some additional edges on why I’m playing the FH line:
- Rain could worsen and potential for this total to drop even further, increasing our CLV edge
- I want to protect against the strength of the Panthers forward pack getting on top of Manly as the game wears on and running away with it late
- Back-up goal kicking of Dylan Edwards is not as good as past years when they had Crichton. We have a greater opportunity at a missed conversion.
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