FREE Best Bet of the Round
Record: 4-1 (85%)
WARRIORS -5.5 ($1.85 Dabble)
A team who is a bet one week, could very well be a fade the week after. That is the case on Saturday where I'm laying the points with the Warriors against a Manly team who saluted for us as an underdog in week 5.
The first point I'll comment on is the number. This year in NZ, the Warriors have played:
> RD 1 Cronulla (-5.5)
> RD 3 Canberra (-9.5)
> RD 4 Newcastle (-11.5)
The Warriors have gotten stronger with the addition of CNK and are all-but full strength. Manly are slightly weaker than their best version without outside backs Saab and Garrick (goal-kicking value too)...yet this is still the joint lowest line of all of the NZ home games? I made this line 8.5 personally and feel the Manly team fit within the 7th-10th ranking of teams. If it was Manly v Knights this week on a neutral field, it would probably be a pick'em.
I don't upgrade the Sea Eagles at all from last week's win because I was anticipating it and that handicap was also a fade against Penrith with the injury still to Cleary.
Manly will find it difficult to replicate the same level of application and intensity that they displayed in front of the Brookie faithful. The Warriors will only get better offensively in the 2nd consecutive week with their best spine. I think they can find some separation and value in the number here.
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