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Record: 4-2 (70%)
KNIGHTS WIN SU ($1.87 Bet365)
Full credit to the Bulldogs for what they’ve shown this past fortnight but after being an underdog to now being asked to win the game at pick’em, it is a different mentality. We shouldn’t forget that this Dogs team is still missing a serious chunk of their first-choice forward pack, with Jacob Preston, Kurt Mann, Harrison Edwards and Max King (looks unlikely to play) all missing again here.
I think this line is factoring in Ponga potentially being ruled out. However, off the longest possible turnaround – a 10-day mini bye, Ponga should play and look like his dynamic self. Whilst the Knights have their issues, coming off a loss and sitting on 2 wins for the year, I’d expect a strong 80-minute showing.
One counter argument here is the potential revenge spot for the Bulldogs, after being blown out 66-0 in this game last year. I’m not completely sold on that, as the Dogs did have a chance to respond in round 24 last year. Also, their roster has undergone a significant overhaul over the off-season. From the starting 17 that took the field against the Knights in that loss, only 5 of them will be playing here (Kiraz, Addo-Carr, Burton, Mahoney and Morrin). Revenge to me is more player driven and I think it is less of an impact than if it was the same squad lining up.
Lastly what gets me over the line here is the spread. We had the Dogs close a +10.5 underdog to the Roosters two weeks ago, whilst the other was a -4.5 point favourite. Sure Tedesco and Walker were out, but they’re not worth over 10 points combined to a point spread. This line should be Knights -3.5 at least and I’m happy to back them at the head to head price with b365. If this goes to golden point and the Knights lose, we get refunded.
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